RIL DOWN 4%, DRAGS NIFTY

The NIFTY was down by 22 points, largely due to lackluster performance by RIL. The stock closed around Rs 860 level. DLF and Cairn were up by 5%, Hindalco was up by almost 4%. The big losers were Jubiliant Food which lost 10% and the recently listed Timbor Home lost another 10% today.

ALLOW BJP TO COMPLETE ITS TERM

In all fairness, the BJP government in Karnataka should be allowed to complete its term, since the voters had rejected both the Congress and JDS in 2008 elections. There is always an opportunity to educate the voters if the BJP government is corrupt and failed in providing good administration. Congress leaders in Karnataka should take a cue from Mamata and Jayalalitha. They were not creating hurdles on day to basis for functioning of the government in their respective states. They convinced the voters the wrong policies of the government at the appropriate time and assumed the power. That is the proper way of bringing change. These kinds of antics -imposing president rule will not go well with the voters and if the government is dismissed and mid term elections are held for the assembly in Karnataka in the next six months BJP may get more than 150 seats. In the long term interest of Congress and JDS it is better they keep quite and wait till 2013.  And in 2013 elections also, if the Congress and JDS are not going to fight unitedly, there is no real chance of unseating the BJP.

THE REAL TRUTH*

BJP and Left as corrupt as Congress.....

There’s a feeling amongst many people that the Congress is the most corrupt party. Actually, that’s not a correct fact. All political parties are corrupt; some like the BJP more than we think them to be. A few interesting reports in the papers over the last few weeks have brought out this point quite clearly. Shows that the BJP’s hopes of benefitting from Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement are ill-founded.

The first story is about the CWG scam now starting to encircle the BJP as well. The CVC’s Chief Technical Examiner (CTE) has indicted the MCD for several projects undertaken by it for the CWG. The MCD is ruled by the BJP. Charges include intentionally delaying projects so that prices could be jacked up in “national interest”, poor quality of work etc.

The second report is in today’s papers and quotes a Center for Media Studies (CMS) study which shows that the aam aadmi feels that corruption has actually come down over the last 5 years. Only 28% of the rural aam aadmi had to pay bribes to get work done (in the areas of Public Distribution System, school education, hospitals and water supply) v/s 56% five years back. However, states where giving bribes remains high are Chhatisgarh (BJP), Bihar (Janata Dal and BJP alliance), Kerala (Left Front) and Maharashtra (Congress). If these numbers reflect the “reality” on date, then the following ones represent the “perception of corruption”: Chattisgarh (66% feel bribes need to be paid....BJP ruled), Bihar (Janata Dal – BJP alliance), Kerala (59%....Left Front), Rajasthan (54%....Congress) and UP (49%.....BSP). An even distribution across political parties!

The last report I am relying on appeared in the Economic Times of April 17^th. An ET-Synovate study listed the top 13 “most corruption prone” states. Starting with the most corrupt, the list includes

1) UP (BSP)

2) Uttarakhand (BJP)

3) Bihar (Janata Dal – BJP),

4) Jharkhand (BJP)

5) Delhi (Congress)

6) MP (BJP)

7) Maharashtra (Congress)

8) Karnataka (BJP)

9) West Bengal (Left)

10) Tamilnadu (DMK – Congress)

11) Punjab (Shiromani Akali Dal)

12) Haryana (Congress)

13) Gujarat (BJP)

This list shows that out of the 13 states, BJP figured in five, Congress in four and the rest were single-state parties. Another way to look at this is that the Congress was named in four out of its 12 ruled states (33%), the BJP in five out of its 7 (71%), and the rest were ruled in the single state that they ruled in (100%). The Congress actually comes out the most clean amongst the corrupt!

This is a very strong indictment against the BJP. The party has been trying to take advantage of the strong sentiments against corruption that have pervaded the urban middle class. With the help of mainstream media (which, as a friend pointed out.....tends to be anti-establishment since it does not depend on government advertising for survival), the BJP has been trying to ride a wave of anger against the UPA government at the Center. The media has been helping the BJP by putting a protective veil on the affairs of the party in Karnataka. However, the above reports are quite damning for the party..... five out of its seven states feature in the most corruption prone states. What would explain this? Actually, it’s not that difficult to understand. In order to fight elections, and to continue with its political activities, any party needs lots of funds. Since funds are almost never acquired legally, parties resort to all sorts of devious methods......Since the BJP does not rule at the Centre, it makes up by exploiting the states where it rules. In contrast, the Congress rules at the Center....hence is less dependent on its state units.

Which brings me to the point I have been making all through. That corruption exists for various reasons. One of the main reasons is that the process of elections gives requires political parties to spend a lot of money. The proponents of the Lokpal Bill don’t seem to have understood this. They seem to believe (a little naively) that setting up a body called the Lokpal (forget how it will harm our democracy) will solve all the problems. To solve the problem, we don’t need more laws; we need to address the core issues that I have highlighted earlier: election funding; better salaries to MPs and babus; making the CBI and CVC independent like the Election Commission is (while still staying under Parliament); and most importantly, reducing the size of the government (getting out of businesses where it adds little or no value).....

The real truth is that the BJP and the media are beating down the wrong path. If they think they will succeed in their propaganda, I think they are mistaken. The media (TV channels, newspapers) are already taking a beating in terms of reducing viewership and readership. The BJP will also take a beating in the next round of elections. Unless it develops a more robust positioning for itself. It failed with the Hindutva plank....it will fail again with the anti-corruption plank as well.

* Reproduced from The Real Truth blog.

STATE ASSEMBLY RESULTS - TOMORROW'S NEWS TODAY

• Mamata and co gets 2/3 majority.
• Left loses power in Kerala too.
• Hat trick for Tarun Gogoi.
• Split verdict in TN.

WORLD CUP CRICKET 2011 PREDICTION FOR THE MATCHES FROM 21 -30

Sl no	Date	Match	News articles bengaluru’s prediction	Actual result
21	06-03-11	England Vs South Africa	SA	ENG
22	06-03-1	India Vs Ireland	INDIA	IND
23	07-03-11	Canada Vs Kenya	KENYA	CANADA
24	08-03-11	New Zea land Vs Pakistan	PAK	NZ
25	09-03-11	India Vs Netherlands	INDIA
26	10-03-11	Sri Lanka Vs Zimbabwe	SL	SL
27	11-03-11	Ireland Vs West Indies	WI	WI
28	11-03-11	Bangladesh Vs England	ENG	Bangladesh
29	12-03-11	India Vs South Africa	SA
30	13-03-11	Canada Vs New Zea land	NZ

BANGALORE ODI - BOWLING WEAKNESS EXPOSED. DHONI, YUSUF SHOULD COME EARLY, STAY LONGER

338 is a good score to defend, on any pitch, more so with home ground advantage. However our bowlers failed to restrict the ENG team and India managed a honorable tie, thanks to mess up, by the England middle order. None of our bowlers were effective in the first 40 overs. In the second spell Zaheer bowled splendidly but enough to win the match.  Our bowling weakness was exposed against the English team, which is not so formidable. The Aussies beat them  by 6-1 margin, in the recent ODI series. In big matches and against strong opponents, Dhoni and Yusuf should come early and bat for at least 10-15 overs. These two have the ability to change the complexion of the game by their hard hitting batting abilities. Had we scored another 10-15 runs more, we could have won the match handsomely. At least, in future matches, Dhoni should change his game plan, himself and Yusuf should come early and bat for longer period, than what they did in the last two games.

AYODHYA PROBLEM - DIFFERENT VIEWS

First we have to change our mind set.There is only one God. Whether it is a temple, mosque or church should not matter. Justice Liberhan has took seventeen years to tell what the country already knew. The Truth commission, as proposed by DNA editor, will consume another decade to tell us again, what we already know. The political parties are in no mood to find a lasting, permanent solution to the problem. The parties concerned should change their mind set, instead of looking into the omissions and drawbacks of what has already happened and finding fault with each other. The purpose of all religion is to know and love God and to show ethical and proper directions to life and living. The preaching in all religion does not differ in any way and all teach love as against hatredness. India being a country, which harbors a multitude of religious belief, the feeling of solidarity in diversity can be best showcased by building a center of worship for all religions.This would no doubt become a memorable monument for the whole world to appreciate and emulate. Its time the political differences are buried and India demonstrates to the world that we are a truly a secular nation in letter and spirit. The government should initiate talks in this regard involving all political parties.The Fourth estate has a greater role to play in educating the general public.

ABSURD AND MEANINGLESS

The views expressed in the article 'How the UPA robbed us of Rs 2,80,795cr'
(DNA 29-08-10) by R. Jagannathan is meaning less and absurd.

The amount refers to the loss made good to oil marketing companies by the government. The profitable ONGC, GAIL and OIL were asked to part with Rs 1,12, 592cr and the rest came from Oil Bonds. Calling these exercise as loot/robbery has no reasoning and without understanding of our complex economy. Consider this -India's 58.4% population is dependent on agriculture, as means of livelihood.However, this segment contributes 17% only to the GDP. It is an indication of resourcefulness of the population depending on it. Of the total 110crpopulation, 37% consists of BPL families. The middle class constitutes another42% (however, this is below the BPL as per international standard). Hence, the subsidies provided to loss making oil marketing companies can not be termed as loot, fraud, since these subsidies benefits nearly 80% of the country's poor and middle class population. What is the alternative? Allowing the petroleum products to be priced at the prevailing oil rates/market determined rates. The country is not yet ready. That will make life miserable for nearly 90%of the country's population. The author's views holds no water, as of today.

Secondly, regarding the DTC bill. There is no end to human wants/wishes.
Government needs money, particularly for rural development, health care,
infrastructure and education. Where do they get it, if the people who have
capacity to pay is let off. Those 'who have' should take care of the 'have not',
that is the true meaning of inclusive growth. I think the government is on the
right track in this regard.

TEN REASONS WHY ONE SHOULD NOT INVEST IN SKS MICRO FINANCE IPO

1. Unethical business: The Company is charging interest around 40% p.a. on money lent to the poor and down trodden.


2. Unsustainable business model: The business model will not sustain in the long -run.


3. No commitment from the promoters: SKS’s founder and chairman sold his shares to Tree Line Asia Master Fund (Singapore) Pte for $12.9 million in Feb. this year.


4. Look at the salary of top executives :

Suresh Gurumani - Managing Director of the Company. The total monthly salary is Rs. 12, 50,000. In addition to the above, Mr. Suresh Gurumani was paid onetime bonus of Rs. 10,000,000, in April 2009.

Dr. Vikram Akula - chairman Rs 70.00 lacs p.a. In addition, ESOP amounting to Rs10.97lacs, totaling Rs 1.79cr p.a.


5. Mohd. Yunus says - “I get very worried when investment funds come to microfinance,” said the founder of Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank, which pioneered the industry by giving small loans to rural women to start their own businesses. “I don’t want to excite businessmen that there is profit to be made here,”


6. The IPO will make the promoters, and other venture capitalists including some P/E funds that have stakes in these companies’ millionaires. The hapless borrowers continue to live in abject poverty.

7. Government /RBI will not be mute spectators to the exploitation.
They are bound to regulate the segment. This will make the business un- attractive.


8. Financial inclusion initiatives taken by the public sector banks will marginalize the micro finance business. Do not buy the theories put forth by the BRLMs to sell the issue.




9. The average cost of acquisition of shares by promoters is less than Rs50/-The Company has limited period of history and no dividend payment record.


10. The Andhra Pradesh government has constituted district level ‘Task Force Committees’ (TFCs) to investigate the unethical practices of micro finance institutions in the state. The committees were constituted after the government received many complaints against the loan shark practices adopted by some leading MFI’s of the state.

FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE IPO LOG ON TO FIRSTCHOICEIPOANALYSIS.COM

BHARAT BANDH: WHY CANNOT OPPOSITION RULED STATES REDUCE VAT.

The BJP and some other political parties have called for Bharat Bandh on 05-07-10 against price rise and for increase in prices of petroleum products. Assuming for the sake of argument, that Center's policies are flawed and the present UPA government is anti-poor. Among others, VAT constitute any where between 24 -33% of the petroleum product prices. VAT is a state subject and the respective state governments have the power and authority to slash the rate to zero level if they are so concerned about the common man,for whose sake the strike being called.
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